Bringing Classical Liberalism to South London
Mike Swadling of this parish was live on LibertariDan, a political discussion from a libertarian perspective.
The home and abroad topics were, Ukraine, Putin and the western response; and Brexit: has it happened? Article 16, and what’s going on with the NI border?
You can view on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/DanLiddicottLibertarian/videos/648560986438501
Author Michael Swadling
Most Croydon residents will have a memory of the Croydon Park Hotel, for me some its of work dos, a venue for giving blood and some slightly clandestine visits to the hotel bar conveniently situated in central Croydon but somewhere you’d be unlikely to bump into anyone you didn’t want to see. Pictures of the hotel still adorn travel sites, a reminder of what a great asset to the town the hotel was. Of course that was before lockdown and the benevolent hand of Croydon Council.
“sold at a loss of some £5 million. Ironically a loss of this magnitude is pretty small fry compared to the disaster that Croydon Council has been in recent years.”
News came this week that the hotel purchased by the council in 2018 has been sold at a loss of some £5 million. Ironically a loss of this magnitude is pretty small fry compared to the disaster that Croydon Council has been in recent years. The purchase was of course hailed as a great success at the time, the council was borrowing cheap money to make a strategic investment and return revenue to its overall budget. Of course things didn’t workout quite as planned, to quote Croydon council’s internal auditors:
“The investments in The Colonnades and Croydon Park Hotel were not grounded in a sufficient understanding of the retail and leisure market and have again illustrated that the Council’s strategy to invest its way out of financial challenge rather than pay attention to controlling expenditure on core services was inherently flawed.”
It is easy to be clever after the event, who could have known at the time the things would go so badly wrong? Well whilst no one likes a ‘told you so’, we, err, ‘told you so’. Writing about the hotel purchase together with the purchase of the Colonnade shopping centre in March 2019 we were able to point out the council has no expertise in running commercial property, we calculated the investments only needed a 3% downturn in revenue for taxpayers to be burdened with the costs of servicing the debts funding these projects. Indeed the council has now confirmed the hotel itself had a running cost of £610,000 a year without even being used as a hotel.
Who knows what would have happened without the pandemic but this was foreseeable. The council had already undertaken an upgrade to the famous Surrey Street Market at a cost of 1.1 million resulting in a lost of both casual and permanent traders, costing over £91,000 per trader lost.
I’m reminded, as is often the case with our local authority of Ronald Regan’s famous line that “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, “I’m from the Government and I’m here to help”.
“it removes the conflict of interest, where the council gives planning permission for, and permits licensing of businesses it’s in competition with”
If any good comes from this aside from removing the ongoing running costs from the council, is that it removes the conflict of interest, where the council gives planning permission for, and permits licensing of businesses it’s in competition with. Let’s hope Croydon Council will now stay out of commerce, and instead focus on just doing its basic job right.
As a group that came together to fight a referendum on membership of the EU, we thought we would ask you, what your views are on Net Zero, a possible Referendum, and more generally the environment.
Part 4 in our series of your views. More responses can be found from Part 1.
Thanks to Crispin Williams, Helen Spiby-Vann, and Mike Swadling for their responses.
“I can remember back in the 1960s when the doom-mongers were heralding the start of another ice age! … so I am by nature and experience a sceptic”
Brexiteer Crispin Williams. Crispin has previously written for us on House of Lords Reform.
Is global warming a threat?
It is Boris Johnson’s (and others’) threat!
I can remember back in the 1960s when the doom-mongers were heralding the start of another ice age! I have also lived through the panics of Aids and the Millennium Bug, both of which were supposed to ruin life as we know it but fizzled out as a major threat, so I am by nature and experience a sceptic. However, I am inclined to believe the graphs that show global temperatures have soared since 1980. Therefore, my proper answer to the question is yes, it is a threat.
1980? Hmm. The temperature rise seems to mirror the rise of industrialisation in China and India. Anyone who has travelled to these and similar countries will have witnessed the high levels of smog and pollution, far worse than we used to have in Britain when we were renowned for our ‘pea-soupers’. In short, we British are not the cause of the problem.
But should we be taking the lead in addressing it? In practical terms, it is a waste of time us ruining our economy to shave off a fraction of the 1% of carbon emissions that we generate. It is well documented that China can – and will – increase their output by this amount in a few weeks, if not days. So it is patently nuts for us to be spending billions of our taxpayers’ money on reducing our miniscule contribution to the problem.
Should we have a referendum on net zero targets?
No. That’s not how we do things in this country. Switzerland can have one as it is part of their democratic processes but there is virtually no precedent here. Referenda should be reserved for constitutional matters only. Anyway, the subject is too emotive and the general public would not be given the full range of facts to make an informed decision.
What action should we be taking on the environment?
Buy lots of sun block, nice shades and swimmies and sod the next generation…
Yes, that was a joke. That said, what we could and should do is pressure the worst polluting countries into reducing their emissions. How? Well, as a suggestion, we could put a ban (or very high tariffs) on imports from them until they address the problem. Of course, this would increase the cost of goods we buy but I suspect the total would be a mere fraction of what we are intending to spend on net zero. And it would stimulate our manufacturing base.
Finally, if we are intent on reducing our emissions, this would best be done through market forces rather than government diktats, artificial target dates and huge subsidies. Once electric cars are cheaper than petrol ones and heat pumps are cheaper than gas boilers, then we will naturally move towards lower emitting technologies.
“Kenya successfully banned plastic packaging in 2017, Rwanda in 2008. We don’t need plastic packaging. We have paper, cardboard, tin, glass, compostable and natural fibres”
Helen Spiby-Vann of the Christian Peoples Alliance party. You can also read our interview with Helen.
‘I’m not going to replace the polyfoam with paper food trays until the government makes me.’ Said the chip-shop man nonchalantly. Not so long ago I got into an uncivilised wrangle over a chip tray. My teenager left the shop in horror at my indiscretion.
However unreasonable and hopeless it may seem, small changes will make a huge difference.
Is global warming a threat?
I believe global warming is a threat. However, as a Christian, my divine calling is unconditional advocacy for compassionate stewardship of the earth’s creatures and plants. Plus to foster equitable sharing of the earth’s resources.
Should we have a referendum on enforced Net Zero targets?
I think this would be a good idea as it will create awareness about the implications across the board. Open discussion and critique from a range of opposing positions will stir hearts into action. Assuming it is approved, it will strengthen the resolve and mandate of this movement. Unfortunately, there is so much ‘greenwashing’ at large, a person can be forgiven for thinking they are helping the planet by buying more plastic Petunias.
What action should we be taking on the environment?
Lifestyles:
More cherished, forbearing and Godly. Less materialism, disposable and excess.
Plastic packaging:
‘I was shocked, when I came to the UK, there’s plastic wrappers on everything in the supermarket.’ (Confessions of my Kenyan friend in London).
Kenya successfully banned plastic packaging in 2017, Rwanda in 2008.
We don’t need plastic packaging. We have paper, cardboard, tin, glass, compostable and natural fibres that are part of circular economies. Supermarkets are selling more and more items in plastic packaging. This is not acceptable. We can solve the plastic packaging problem simply by not producing it in the first place.
Moreover, we should be extending this to manufacturing by promoting ‘Cradle to Cradle’ type standards: healthy, socially just and authentically sustainable. Producing no waste and using natural energy flows that do not pollute.
Energy:
We have been building wind turbines and paying for them to be switched off. There must be a better way to manage our sustainable energy assets so we can phase out fossil fuels.
“we have a situation where the political/media classes all agree they need to lower our standard of living, which I firmly believe people don’t want (note they don’t seem to want to lower theirs)”
Mike Swadling one of the Croydon Constitutionalists.
Is global warming a threat?
Humans are exceptional. 200 years ago Global life expectancy was under 30, today life expectancy in the poorest counties is over 50, the global average is over 70. When I was at school people starved in many countries, today hunger has almost disappeared except where war or governments stop food supplies. Since the turn of the century the expanding economies of China and India mean China has a middle class the size of the population of Europe, with India only a few years behind.
Despite expanding populations and doomsday predictions the number of people dying from extreme weather events continues to collapse. Climate has changed for millennia before mankind, during our existence and will for many more to come without our interference. For over 30 years ‘experts’ on hefty grants have told us of impending doom from global warming, rising seas levels, agricultural failures, and a scorched planet. None of this has happened, and the planet is greening every year.
Is global warming a threat? Maybe, but human ingenuity will not just rise to any challenge, we will excel and overcome it.
Should we have a referendum on enforced Net Zero targets?
All of the major parties are in lockstep on Net Zero. For all of the challenges of a referendum, we have a situation where the political/media classes all agree they need to lower our standard of living, which I firmly believe people don’t want (note they don’t seem to want to lower theirs). Unless or until a party currently outside parliament makes a breakthrough, the people have no real choice. For all of the challenges off a Referendum on Net Zero, today we have the people pitted against parliament, and like Brexit, I can only see that a referendum will allow us to set parliament back on a path of striving to improve rather than diminish our lives.
What action should we be taking on the environment?
We should protect the environment we live in. In our borough, every small patch of land is being built on. New blocks of flats out of character of the area they are built in keep popping up. Council and government policies have made where we live a less pleasant environment, we need to change this.
Globally we should protect at risk species of animal and plant. I believe this is best achieved by balancing the environment concerns and economic concerns of the local populations. Chickens are not at risk of extinction because they are good source of food and economically useful. Horses are often well looked after because they work and are raced, so are economically useful. Dogs are not at risk of extinction because they work and provide companionship. There is no threat of extinction of lawn grass or corn. Whether through tourism, food, work or altruism, animals and plants that are economically viable thrive.
We can best protect the environment by making bio diversity an economic benefit. To achieve this we should focus on raising the standard of living of the poorest across the globe to the point that they have the capacity to choose to invest in, and protect their local environments.
This is the forth set of your responses, further responses can be found from Part 1 and in Part 5.
On October 5th the Coulsdon and Purley Debating Society debated the motion “Lockdown does/did more harm than good”.
Mike Swadling proposed the debate, and below is his speech delivered to the society. As always with this friendly group the debate was good natured, very well opposed and drew out some great views from the audience.
Lockdown, all of the lockdowns, were a challenging time for all of us, I’m sure. As we thankfully move out of them, we need to be careful not to look back with rose-tinted glasses, for the price of lockdown is a cost we now are all forced to bear.
“We had a shared sacrifice through lockdown, we don’t like to think that was in vain, but we must avoid what economist call the ‘sunk cost fallacy’.”
What surprised you most about your lockdown?
What did you do / stop doing that surprised you? I would like to tell you about the great skill I learnt, or hobby I engaged in, but for me and this may sound a little odd, it was that I used aftershave more. Now to avoid confusion this was not eau de toilette, perfume, or eau de Cologne. This was cheap aftershave.
Going into an office since I was a teenager I would shave ever day, or at worst every other day. In lockdown, suddenly shaving a was much less common event and I needed some cheap aftershave to somewhat painfully help my face recover after a weekly shave.
I don’t doubt you have better surprise experiences from lockdown, but whatever they are, we should avoid confusing the revelation from adversity with a positive experience. We didn’t see our friends and families for a long time. Many lost their jobs, and their businesses in lockdown, many lost hope.
We had a shared sacrifice through lockdown, we don’t like to think that was in vain, but we must avoid what economist call the ‘sunk cost fallacy’. This being our tendency to follow through on an endeavor if we have already invested time, effort, or money into it, whether or not the current costs outweigh the benefits.
And Lockdowns costs, way outstripped Lockdowns benefits.
I want to for a moment separate lockdown from the pandemic and endemic problem of Covid. Many people lost their lives to this terrible virus. But the virus is quite separate from the actions we take to manage or deal with it.
We have seen around the globe a mixture of measures to handle Covid. Some countries have in effect locked Covid out of their land, this has worked for Australia and until recently New Zealand, some have staid in almost permanent lockdowns, some taken a very limited response like Sweden, and some like the UK, US and Switzerland with more federal systems have adopted different approaches across their countries.
All of these counties took different approaches, to fight the same virus. I will argue we should have taken a very different approach to fight lockdowns, and that Lockdown did more harm than good.
The idea of a Lockdown was such an anathema. Government ministers telling you how long you were allowed out of your home, and police forces flying drones to check who is visiting beauty spots. The burden must lie with on those in favor of lockdowns to prove they had an invaluable and undeniable contribution to make in fighting covid.
If the last 18 months have taught us anything it’s that lockdowns didn’t stop the virus, didn’t control the virus, but did cause untold damage to our society.
For lockdowns to be justified they must in my opinion pass the following 3 tests:
I will demonstrate lockdowns have failed all 3.
The original plan for dealing with a virus was messaging to increase hygiene, some voluntary social distancing, and protecting the most vulnerable until heard immunity had built up to protect them naturally. Indeed you will remember that we originally ‘locked-down’ for just 3 weeks to ‘bend the curve’, to protect the NHS. This would flatten the peak number needing medical treatment for Covid, and ensure hospitals didn’t run out of capacity. It was never expected that the total number who would need hospitalization, or who would die would significantly change as a result of lockdown.
We have now had 18 month of those ‘3 weeks’ and we can compare those countries who followed their original plans more closely with those who undertook severe lockdowns. The comparison suggests frankly as a result of lockdowns, not much changed.
Now I am going to talk about deaths. Death has so far proved to be 100% unavoidable. People will die, and will die at a higher rate when a new virus is doing the rounds. An individuals death is tragic, but for policy purposes, we need to look at which policy saw the least deaths, and ideally the least years of a fulfilled life lost.
“What does all this data tell us, frankly not a lot. Which does show, that whatever the ingredient was that lead to a higher or lower death rates from Covid, it certainly wasn’t lockdown”
The Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker, collects systematic information on policy measures that governments have taken to tackle COVID-19. The different policy responses are tracked since January 2020, cover more than 180 countries and are coded into 23 indicators, such as school closures, travel restrictions, and vaccination policy. They rank countries on how strict their lockdown policy was from 0 to 100, with 100 being the strictest.
The UK sits at 80 out of 100, France at 88, Spain 82 and Italy 69. Germany comes in at just 64 and all the Scandinavian countries are in the 60s, with Sweden the lowest at 65. How does this compare to the Covid death rate?
At over 2000 per million, the UK and Italy had the most death, with France and Spain not far behind. Germany and Sweden had similar numbers of deaths at about 1300 and 1450 per million respectively, and limited lockdown Norway and Finland we’re bottom with both less than 200 deaths per million.
Incidentally Bosnia at the high rate of 90 in severity of lockdown and Hungry at a lenient 66, were the two countries in with the highest death rates from Covid in Europe. Iceland with the least lockdown, ranked at just 50 out of 100, and had the least deaths per million, with just 33 deaths in total.
What does all this data tell us, frankly not a lot. Which does show, that whatever the ingredient was that lead to a higher or lower death rates from Covid, it certainly wasn’t lockdown.
If you don’t believe the data from Europe or have some reason to dismiss it. Let’s look at the US, a society, where different legal jurisdictions are more comparable.
It’s been widely reported the New York and California have had serve lockdowns, and generally high compliance rates among the population, yet they come in 5th and 33rd among the 50 states for death rates.
Texas at 20th and Florida ranked 9th by death rate, have had some of the least restrictive and shortest lockdowns. Arkansas 10th, Iowa 25th, Nebraska 42nd, North Dakota 23rd, South Dakota 12th, Utah 45th, and Wyoming 35th, by rates of deaths, are the only states that did not issue stay at home orders in early 2020.
The very scattered nature of death rates shows once again that whatever the ingredient was that lead to higher or lower death rates from Covid, it certainly wasn’t lockdown.
In the first lockdown rates were falling before the lockdown was brought in, in the autumn rates continued to rise as lockdown came in and death rates peaked in the middle of the winter lockdown. As we have opened up society we’ve not seen any increase in death rates as pubs, stadiums, theater’s opened and schools returned.
There is simply no evidence that ‘comparted to our society being free, lockdowns stopped or slowed the spread of the virus in the community or saved lives’.
Now to address the second test.
Now I believe I have demonstrated there was no benefit from the original lockdown, but even if you believe there was, does it outweigh lockdowns undeniable costs?
I have said this before to this grand society, but it bears repeating. The Great Frost of 1709 was the coldest European winter during the past 500 years. It caused widespread crop failure and economic devastation. 2020 was the worst economic contraction since 1709. Let’s just put that into some perspective.
In the intervening years we have faced, Jacobite revolution, a global 7 Year war with Louis XV’s France, fought in and lost the Americas, seen off Napoleon, fought two World Wars against Germany, seen massive economic changes with agricultural and industrial revolutions, introduced and repealed The Corn Laws, seen global economic depression in the 1930’s, formed a Union with and given independence to Ireland. Gained and lost the world’s largest ever Empire, Yet none of these created as big a fall in GDP as we faced last year.
To remind you, Lockdown caused more damage than the Luftwaffe.
“Put simply the richer a country is the longer people live. We have in one year for no good reason, destroyed more wealth in the UK, than any other year for the past 300. How can that not have serious ramifications?”
The UK has an average life expectancy of 81, Uganda 63. Canada is 82, Chad 54. France 82, Fiji 67. Germans with their love for beer and bratwurst, outlive Gambians by 19 years.
Having spent some time working in Belgium, a country of endless rain. I know it’s almost not possible to eat a meal there without a large helping of potatoes, yet even they live 20 more years on average than the people of tropical Burkina Faso. Singaporeans, live on average 11 more years than neighboring Malaysians.
What separates these countries? One word, wealth.
Put simply the richer a country is the longer people live. We have in one year for no good reason, destroyed more wealth in the UK, than any other year for the past 300. How can that not have serious ramifications?
“during the year to July 31st, Barnardo’s saw a 36% increase in the number of children referred for foster care. We know the NHS saw a 28% rise in children being referred to mental health services in late 2020”
But it’s not just an economic cost, it’s a societal one.
We saw people die alone in care homes, and hospitals. We have given out two years of frankly guessed GCSE and A Level results. We have supply chain problems globally and we have printed money like it’s confetti and inflation is once again rearing its ugly head.
All of this was for lockdowns, that we can see when compared to the countries that didn’t lockdown, made not a blind bit of difference to the spread of the virus. Do the ‘ongoing costs, outweigh any original benefit’. Absolutely not. The third and final test I passionately believe is the most important.
If I may again repeat my words from a previous debate. The income tax was first introduced in the Napoleonic Wars as a temporary measure and is still with us today. Blanket restrictions were applied to pub opening times during World War One, and left largely unchanged until 1988 and rationing stayed in place for 9 years after the end of the second world war.
“Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program” to quote Milton Friedman.
Since 1215 with Magna Carta, through the 1689 Bill of Rights, to universal suffrage, freedoms have been hard won. Those in power always want more, and by necessity will sacrifice your liberty to take it. Any didn’t they just do that.
Lockdown broke articles 3, 5, 13, 18, 19, 20, 23 and 27, of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
This is not a partisan point, as our supposed opposition parties were just as enthusiastic about granting politicians, civil servants, medical chiefs and the police ever more power over our lives.
Did the governing class justify this power grab? Let’s look at a few cases.
Rules for thee and not for me, has been the mantra of those in power.
“Of course not everyone was unmasked, the staff, the people serving them, those not privileged to move in these lofty circus, needed to retain their muzzles when serving the great and good”
We saw earlier this year staged photos of world leaders in masks during the G7 Summit in Cornwall, next to photos of them all unmasked enjoying normal conversations. Of course not everyone was unmasked, the staff, the people serving them, those not privileged to move in these lofty circus, needed to retain their muzzles when serving the great and good.
We saw the same at Wimbledon in the Royal Box, where only staff need to were a face covering, and again recently at the Met Gala in New York.
Rules for thee and not for me, shows the moral bankruptcy of those who govern us, and show how ‘the government has proved it does not have the moral authority to exercise control over our lives’.
“The vaccines have protected many and saved a lot of lives, but in a free society people must be free to choose if they want them. They must be free from the coercion of vaccine passports”
Freedoms are returning, lockdowns have in large part lifted. But we must be ever vigilant. The vaccines have protected many and saved a lot of lives, but in a free society people must be free to choose if they want them. They must be free from the coercion of vaccine passports.
We must free from the zero covid strategy being implemented in much of Australia which is seeing in, Melbourne of all cities Police use rubber bullets on people protesting lockdowns and coerced vaccination.
Lockdowns didn’t work, they did more hard than good, their harm is sadly enduring. As frustrating as it is to know we wasted a good year in lockdown, we must acknowledge that due to their immense harm lockdowns must not be allowed to happen again.
I set 3 tests for Lockdown
When we compare countries, who took different measures, lockdowns in no way demonstrate they worked stem the spread of Covid.
We know the impact of lockdown on the economy, on society, on children’s education, and on all our health in the long term. In no case will it be good.
We have lost freedoms, that are proving slow to return. The government and those more broadly in power have not demonstrated they are fit to govern, and take our freedoms.
Lockdown did more harm than good, and I urge you to support the motion.
Image from https://pixabay.com/illustrations/soil-health-mask-protection-corona-5935148/
To find out more about the Coulsdon and Purley Debating Society visit their Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/CoulsdonPurleyDebatingSociety/ or email them at [email protected].
Independents for Liberty held their 2021 Annual Conference, ‘Restoring Liberty, Rebuilding A Free Country’, on Saturday, 25th September.
They are an association of pro-liberty individuals and influencers aiming to restore liberty and rebuild a free country.
Their mission as individual associates of Independents for Liberty is to make the case for freedom, promote political activism that supports your liberty and grow sustainable economies that enhances long-term freedom.
Michael Swadling of Croydon Constitutionalists shares tried and tested campaign strategies every independent libertarian candidate should be using for their local election campaigns.
Mike’s contribution:
Christopher Wilkinson opens the first annual Independents for Liberty conference by outlining how the association will help rebuild a free country:
Harry Fone, Grassroots Campaign Manager for the Tax Payers’ Alliance, tells what we can expect from the Tax and NI increases, Government and Council waste, and highlights important points for independent libertarian candidates to campaign on:
Gareth Seward, speaking at the 2021 Independents for Liberty conference, explains the coming consequences of government economic policy. An essential primer for understanding current events.
You can see more on the Independents for Liberty Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/IndependentsForLiberty or their website https://independentlibertarians.uk/
Mike Swadling of this parish is Vice Chair of Governors at Winterbourne Nursery and Infant School in Thornton Heath, Croydon. Many of us have found lockdown hard, too many of us have failed to put the time to good use, but one local school has used this period to good effect.
“Founded in 1906, Winterbourne Nursery and Infants School sits on a site with separate Junior Boys and Girls schools. The last remaining single-sex, state-funded junior schools in the country. Whilst the schools often cooperate they remain very much independent schools, with their own staff, heads, budgets and governors”
“ensure compliance with required regulations and the good governance of public resources. Following much hard work over the previous year the school received a commendable ‘Substantial Assurance’ audit”
“Teachers provide a warm, nurturing start to each day with a live online session. They give clear guidance and support to pupils and parents about the day’s learning tasks.”
“This past year has been a challenge for everyone, some of us have used the time to set goals, many of us have failed to achieve them, but one local school, Winterbourne Nursery and Infants, can rightly say, its whole community should be proud of its journey of self-improvement”
Full article: https://www.inyourarea.co.uk/news/nursery-and-infant-school-in-thornton-heath-reflects-on-a-year-in-lockdown/
The story was also picked up by the Thornton Heath Chronicle https://www.thorntonheathchronicle.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TTHC-April21.pdf
You may also be interested in a follow-up from August 2021 on the schools graduation ceremony: Croydon nursery and infant school celebrates graduation after year of Covid disruption | InYourArea Community
The TaxPayers’ Alliance have published an update on Croydon Council written by Mike Swadling of this parish.
“Ambitious for Croydon” was the Labour Party’s motto when they were duly elected to run Croydon again in 2018. Certainly, the plans have been ambitious; as has the spending that went with them. Whilst the budgets that underpinned these goals have largely received cross-party support, things quickly spiralled out of control, as many had predicted”
“makes it all the more galling that the council was forking out vast sums of local residents’ money on things such as solar panelled bins – and now they need to close rubbish tips, which will no doubt lead to more fly-tipping!”
“Croydon’s councillors voted to reduce £300,000 from councillor pay from April 2021. Better late than never, but this will still likely leave Croydon’s councillors in the top 20 per cent best remunerated in the country and top six in London. Is this really fitting for cabinet members who oversaw only the second council bankruptcy this century?”
“Against this backdrop, Croydon’s hard-pressed taxpayers are bound to ask what has changed. Highly paid executives and well-remunerated councillors oversaw a fiasco that has left local households to pick up the tab for many years to come.”
Full article: https://www.taxpayersalliance.com/croydon_council_testing_our_better_angels
The article has also been shared by The Future Cities Project at http://futurecities.org.uk/2021/03/18/croydon-in-crisis/
Video:
Now we have left the Transition Period we asked Brexiteers if they feel Brexit is now complete, for their hopes and their predictions for the future.
Part 6 below more (parts 7 and beyond) to follow….. You can also read Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4 and Part 5.
“The TCA seems to offer better terms than EFTA/EEA membership, so it may be that more semi-detached countries like Norway, and maybe even non-Eurozone members like Sweden, see it as a better option. The Eurozone part could then integrate further”
Did Brexit get done? We have clawed back a fair degree of sovereignty, but the government’s hands remain tied in important ways. For me, this is a “minimum Brexit”. The Full Brexit’s full analysis of the deal is here: https://www.thefullbrexit.com/uk-eu-deal
How do you hope the U.K. will use the new found freedoms? Two main things. First, we need wholesale reforms to increase democratic control over economic, political and social life. Brexit has exposed the UK constitution as fundamentally broken. Second, we need a proper industrial strategy capable of developing economic sectors fit for the 21st century, de-financialising the economy, and spreading prosperity beyond the Southeast. We will also need to develop a strategy for maximising our room for manoeuvre under the Trade and Cooperation Agreement and for defying it where necessary.
What constitutional reform would you like to see happen next?
What do you think is next for the EU? If the UK makes a real success of Brexit, this will revive desires for leaving the EU, which have dampened during years of stagnation and difficulty. Possibly the “two-speed Europe” we are seeing emerging (between Eurozone/non-Eurozone) could further intensify in a formal bifurcation. The TCA seems to offer better terms than EFTA/EEA membership, so it may be that more semi-detached countries like Norway, and maybe even non-Eurozone members like Sweden, see it as a better option. The Eurozone part could then integrate further. But I also think the fundamental economic contradictions of the Eurozone will persist – it simply doesn’t work as a monetary union without a fiscal union. We’re seeing some efforts to fudge this with some new taxation powers for the Commission and the COVID-19 “fund” (which is really just a permission to rack up national debt). But it doesn’t overcome the basic contradiction, and Germany simply isn’t willing (or really able) to take on the costs and responsibility of centralised fiscal policy for the whole EU. So, all the basic contradictions and tensions will persist, and the EU’s neoliberal constitution will continue to curtail economic growth and exacerbate social inequality. In 20-25 years I doubt the EU as it currently exists will still be around.
“yes. I do, however, really regret the painful unnecessary ‘long and winding road’ we have had to go through but onwards and upwards now!”
Did Brexit get done? Bill Cash believes it truly makes us an independent country and I have trust in him, so yes. I do, however, really regret the painful unnecessary ‘long and winding road’ we have had to go through but onwards and upwards now!
How do you hope the U.K. will use the new found freedoms? To become the wealthiest, most successful, inventive, happy and free major country in the world.
What constitutional reform would you like to see happen next? Reverse Tony Blair’s disastrous devolution, reduce MPs to about 200-300 and Lords to have time limited terms, not for life. Lower taxes.
What do you think is next for the EU? Initial greater centralisation, then resistance from the east and then eventual scaling back of the organisation when the price becomes too high for the Germans to justify, possibly to a level we could have been comfortable with in 2016 (or am I a dreamer?).
“We should trade more with the growing economies, this will allow us reduce costs of basic foodstuffs, and other products for the poorest in our country, and through trade help grow the economies of developing nations spreading wealth and freedom to those most in need across the globe”
Did Brexit get done? Yes, take the win. It’s not perfect, but nothing is. We have faced a huge fight to ensure our country remains a democracy, after much of the political class, judiciary, and media, lined up to overthrow our vote. It’s been a hell of a 4 years, but most us would have taken this position 4 years ago, let’s enjoy it now. My main concern now is over Northern Ireland, and we need to work to ensure that the UK not just GB fully leaves the EU.
How do you hope the U.K. will use the new found freedoms? On trade, lets use this opportunity to ensure we have the lowest possible tariffs with the developing word. We should trade more with the growing economies, this will allow us reduce costs of basic foodstuffs, and other products for the poorest in our country, and through trade help grow the economies of developing nations spreading wealth and freedom to those most in need across the globe.
Domestically we should:
What constitutional reform would you like to see happen next? I’d like to see much more devolution, with powers residing at the most local possible level (when they can’t be held directly by the individual). We see locally with Labour’s bankrupting of Croydon Council and nationally with the ineffective Scottish and Welsh governments, devolution in this country hasn’t work well. The reform I’d like to see is tax raising as well as spending powers moved locally. The authority that has to spend the money should also need to raise it, critically with this change we need to the ability to borrow money for anything but the strictest criteria removed from all except central government.
The Scottish and Welsh governments, and local councils will suddenly be forced into a position of justifying their poor spending decisions no longer able to hide them by taking on debt or by blaming central government for a lack of grants. In the case of Croydon if the people wanted to buy a hotel or shopping centre the council would need to raise taxes to do so (I suspect that would have stopped these ridiculous schemes). In the Scotland and Wales the governments would be forced into building more business friendly environments if they wanted to raise the taxes for their spending plans. We would see governments compete for their tax base, benefiting businesses and us as individuals.
What do you think is next for the EU? The Euro simply doesn’t work. Southern European economies locked into the single currency, can’t currently compete with the productivity levels of the a Germany or the BeNeLux countries. They can’t grow their economy and skills base, in part because they can’t lower the value of their currency to encourage export led growth. They can’t flout away some their government debt through inflation, to allow the tax burden to be reduced. Worst of all, their young and least skilled workers don’t have their opportunities for entry level work to gain skills, stopped by mass unemployment and limited opportunities in economies that operate with what is frankly the wrong currency. I don’t know how or when the Euro will break but it has to, as the breaking of the Euro is the best hope for millions of Europeans and many countries future economic prospects.
“A full written civil liberty focused constitution detailing the individual citizens are sovereign, not Parliament or the Monarch”
Did Brexit get done? No. It was a BRINO. Boris & the Conservative Party were never going to deliver an independent Britain. It would always be skewed where the EU would have more authority in some parts. This is because the Conservatives have always been a pro EU party. Remember, they were the party which entered the ECC in the first place and also the party to sign the Maastricht Treaty creating the EU.
So the logical question to ask is; why would a party which campaigned for years to remain in the EU, has more Remainers MPs & CCHQ officials in it than Leavers (including the current Cabinet), only gave the 2016 Referendum not because out of the kindness of their heart or that the Tories were die-hard Brexiteers but because of pressure from UKIP, ever be trusted to deliver a true Brexit? The logical answer is of course; they can’t be trusted and they won’t deliver it.
How do you hope the U.K. will use the new found freedoms? They will do nothing. I believe they will at minimal attempt to mirror almost all laws to the EU and at maximum will quietly campaign to re-join the EU, as they are a pro EU party. In fact, it is ironic to think that the old party emblem of the Conservative Party was the liberty torch. It is right they no-longer use it as they as the governing party (as well as with the assistance from all the parliamentary parties) have currently robbed us of our liberties in this current expired pandemic.
What constitutional reform would you like to see happen next? A full written civil liberty focused constitution detailing the individual citizens are sovereign, not Parliament or the Monarch. Preferably this document will be an updated version of the Bill of Rights 1688/1689.
What do you think is next for the EU? It’s market and GDP will continue to decline. It will essentially quietly crumble due to mainstream media outlets not properly reporting on it due to political bias.
In the run up to us leaving the transition period with the EU, Mike Swadling was interviewed by Anaïs Cordoba of French radio station Europe 1 about the deal and how he would be celebrating us truly leaving the EU. The broadcast (in French, with some of Mikes words audible) is available at https://www.europe1.fr/emissions/le-6-9/francois-clauss-avec-eric-coquerel-et-julie-neveux-4015705 starting at 01.38.20 .
In summary it presents Mike as ‘a Brexit campaigner for many years before and after the referendum, that tonight he is cheering with a glass of French champagne, with some of your campaign friends on zoom… that he is happy with the result but also relieved to move on’.
Mike: “I have never been so tired… As a nation it will make us good to put this behind us.. coming back to more normality where we can disagree on policies, but not on fundamental structures… also if you listen to a football or gardening podcast Brexit will be mentioned. It has been relentless”
The interview also features in regional newspaper Le Telegramme, available at https://www.letelegramme.fr/monde/soir-de-fete-ou-de-deuil-un-reveillon-particulier-pour-les-pro-et-les-anti-brexit-30-12-2020-12682086.php.
“Early Brexit activist in his commune of Croydon, South London, Mike Swadling plans to toast on Thursday night… “With a glass of French champagne,” he says with a smile. The United Kingdom officially left the European Union on 31 January. But for this computer scientist, who has been committed to the cause of Brexit since the referendum campaign, 1 January 2021 is also a date to celebrate: “We will finally regain our sovereignty. During the transition period, we had become a vassal state of the European Union, still under its laws, but without a voice. »
Mike is pleased with the agreement sealing the new relationship between the UK and the EU: “Certainly this agreement is not perfect. Big concessions have been made to the European Union on fisheries and Northern Ireland (which remains in the single market and customs union), but I am happy to put it all behind us”
Mike would like to note his local Aldi had a good deal on French champagne…
On December 1st the Coulsdon and Purley Debating Society debated the motion “This time next year life will be back to normal”
Mike Swadling opposed the debate, and below is his speech delivered to the society via Zoom. As always with this friendly group the debate was good natured, very well proposed and drew out some great views from the audience.
What a year we have had, and expect to have for a good few months to come. We have lost too many people, lost too many freedoms, and will continue to suffer from the economic consequences and health care losses of lockdown.
Meanwhile new ways of living have become part of our new normal. Many people who had never held a conference call or video conference, now do so daily. Millions have worked from home all year.
The knock at the door of an Amazon delivery is now a familiar sound, and if you’re lucky enough to get a slot, we have become used to home deliveries for our food shopping.
Now much, as I would like it to be so, I don’t believe this time next year, life will be back to the old normal. Nor do I believe, we will be living fundamentally changed lives, but the way we live has seen a step change, and will continue to evolve.
“let me offer some hope, the pandemic levels of death ended in June, when death rates thankfully returned to the 5 year normal. Life with Covid became endemic. Predictions of a second waves of deaths have proved thankfully untrue”
First let me offer some hope, the pandemic levels of death ended in June, when death rates thankfully returned to the 5 year normal. Life with Covid became endemic. Predictions of a second waves of deaths have proved thankfully untrue, even as cases have risen. Treatments are getting better, the NHS was not overwhelmed at the peak, and won’t be now. We also have the prospect of a multitude of vaccines to build up further immunity in the population. We can look forward to the future, where the true threat of Covid 19, is seen as no more serious than threat of a normal seasonal flu.
But the absence of Covid deaths does not mean an immediate return to a year ago. For instance let us look locally for examples of how things are changing.
Most of us have gone a year without visiting a department store. Debenhams in Croydon has closed, John Lewis, a flagship store for the new Westfield development, has closed its Purley Way outlet. Arcadia, which includes Topshop, Burton and Dorothy Perkins, based out in Valley Park is reported to be on the brink of collapse. The Westfield shopping centre unlikely to happen before the first lockdown, is now almost impossible to believe.
With retail on the life support from furlough schemes, it’s hard to imagine the Whitgift centre ever truly reviving. No doubt we will see something new in our town centre, but online shopping has ensured it won’t be the kind of all-encompassing retail centre, we have seen for all our lives.
Aside from retail, Croydon has been for many years a major office centre. These offices have now largely stood empty since March. Offices that cost millions to run are now being run from peoples spare rooms, dining tables or sofas. Why would a business want their staff to return, to reincur those costs?
Now I don’t believe the world of work will fundamentally change so much we will never be back in the office. Distant relations work in part because we have built up trust and connections from having physically meet.
But I wouldn’t overplay that fact, I like many now work with teams all over the globe, I have never meet the people I work with in the US, Malaysia, or Italy, yet we get on, we laugh and joke, and importantly we get the job done.
People are sociable, it would be handy to meet-up with my local colleagues from time to time. Frankly it would be good to get out of my house. I’ve not seen much evidence you can fully train people to do a job remotely. Some office jobs require a higher degree of physical interaction, and of course away from offices there is a whole world of world that requires a physical presence.
But what does this mean for Croydon?
Well my prediction, and hardly an original one, is that we will move from a world where many work from home 1-2 days a week, to a world where people go into the office say 1-4 days per month. Offices will have less desks and more meeting rooms and breakout spaces. I firmly suspect enterprising coffee shops will be adding ‘work pods’ you can hire to get together with a few co-workers.
What happens to the plethora of office blocks in central Croydon? Their use, can only reduce. What will we need? 80% of what we have today? 50% maybe, or even just 20%? I don’t know, but I do know the twin engines of our town and indeed our city of Offices and Retail have both fundamentally changed.
Now what to do with all these office blocks? We are already building a large number of housing blocks in Croydon. Many people have concerns about this making Croydon a dormitory town, and that these homes are not suitable for families.
With people traveling to work less and working from home more, needing space in their homes, and dare I say it, maybe even a garden, these home are not suitable for todays’ let alone tomorrows living requirements.
With a need for housing people will no doubt be cramped into converted office blocks, even with the problems that will bring.
This does however offer one possible future for the Whitgift Centre. Conversion to a much needed central park for those living in the new high rises around it.
Our town will not be the same this time next year, although I’m sure things will feel far better than today, they will be far from normal.
From the local changes let us look at some national changes. Great Frost of 1709 was the coldest European winter during the past 500 years. It caused widespread crop failure and economic devastation. We are now facing the worst economic failure since then. Let’s just put that into some perspective.
In the intervening years we have faced Jacobite revolution, a global 7 Year war with Louis XV’s France, fought in and lost the Americas, seen off Napoleon, fought two World Wars against Germany, seen massive economic changes with agricultural and industrial revolutions, introduced and repealed The Corn Laws, seen global economic depression in the 1930’s, formed a Union with and given independence to Ireland. Gained and lost the world’s largest ever Empire, Yet none of these lead to the economic crisis we now face.
To put it simply, Lockdown has caused more damage than the Luftwaffe.
The Office of Budget Responsibility forecasts the economy will shrink by 11.3% this year, and we will borrow £394bn the equivalent of 19% of GDP. We are in a hole, and with new tougher Tiers in place, we have just ordered new digging equipment.
We don’t know how bad unemployment will be, how many shops will shut down, how much the transport industry will contract, or how little of the hospitality sector will remain after furlough ends, and economic realities kick in, but we do know it will be devastating.
Recovery from an economic shock this size won’t come quick.
The income tax was first introduced in the Napoleonic Wars as a temporary measure and is still with us today. Blanket restrictions were applied to pub opening times during World War One, and left largely unchanged until 1988. Rationing stayed in place for 9 years after the end of the second world war, and we didn’t pay off our war debts until 2006.
This economic shock is bigger than any of them. It will take far, far longer than a year to get us out of this hole.
“Pre-lockdown a 1000 people a day were diagnosed with Cancer. That has largely stopped for the last 9 months….The consequences a year from now, of the shutting down of large parts of our health service don’t bear contemplation”
We also see health consequences. Pre-lockdown a 1000 people a day were diagnosed with Cancer. That has largely stopped for the last 9 months. Many minor operations have been postponed and will become major operations. The consequences a year from now, of the shutting down of large parts of our health service don’t bear contemplation. On top of that the coming unemployment and lost prosperity, is a health crisis of its own.
Worse than all this I believe, and likely to have far longer consequences, is our loss of freedom.
I hope you all agree, Everyone has following the rights
What I have read to you there are extracts of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
Articles 3, 5, 13, 18, 19, 20, 23 and 27, of which, are being broken right now by our government. This is not a partisan point, as our opposition parties are arguably even more enthusiastic about the Covid Laws
Since 1215 with Magna Carta, through the 1689 Bill of Rights, to universal suffrage, freedoms have been hard won. Those in power always want more, and by necessity will sacrifice your liberty to take it.
“If you believe these freedoms, all these freedoms, will be back with us, and life will return to normal in a year from now, I have a bridge to sell you. Only under the current law I’m not allowed to trade”
If you believe these freedoms, all these freedoms, will be back with us, and life will return to normal in a year from now, I have a bridge to sell you. Only under the current law I’m not allowed to trade, you’re not allowed out to see the bridge, and shaking hands on a deal will see us both severely fined.
Some genies have escaped their bottle, and won’t be put back. The economy will take many years to come back, the NHS will be dealing with the health consequences of this year for much of the next decade and who knows, when we will simply be allowed to do what we used to think of as normal interactions.
Life won’t return to normal by this time next year, but we should do our damnedest to make it as normal as possible.
“We have no right to protest, the churches are closed, drones were following hill walkers and police ask you to report those breaking the rules, and government literally banned couples who live in separate houses from meeting up”
It has become something of a cliché to say George Orwell’s 1984, was meant as a warning of a dystopian future not a how to guide for government.
In the book criticism of the state is forbidden, there is no organised religion, you are under constant surveillance, and intimate relationships are strictly controlled.
We have no right to protest, the churches are closed, drones were following hill walkers and police ask you to report those breaking the rules, and government literally banned couples who live in separate houses from meeting up.
These will be temporary measures, just like we’re still in last March’s 3 week lockdown, to flatten the curve.
A year from now we will be in the midst of a very real economic crisis. Many shops, pubs and restaurants will be boarded up. Hotels will be closed, tourist attractions behind shutters. We will have empty offices being converted into the troubled high-rises of the future, and we likely see a massive reduction of choice of public transport. Things will not be normal.
The human spirt will however prevail. The economy will bounce back. We will push to regain our lost rights, or much like we are seeing in this lockdown, many will just ignore those in authority. Life will return to normal but it will be a struggle and one that sadly will take us well beyond next year.
Image: https://pixabay.com/illustrations/virus-covid-science-covid19-4937553/
Article in January 2021 CR5 Magazine https://cr5.co.uk
